| Biography | |
|---|---|
 Prof. Muhammed A. Hassan Cairo University, Egypt |
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| Title: Auto-weighted forecasters of solar irradiance for the management of solar power systems | |
| Abstract: The total installed capacity of solar photovoltaic (PV) systems is projected to be around 1721 GW in 2023. One of the main challenges in penetrating solar power systems in the local electric grid is the intermittency of the solar resource, which results in difficulties in predicting the output power and maintaining the stability of the grid. Hence, precise forecasters of solar irradiance are becoming essential and valuable tools for better system management and control. The state-of-art is hybrid forecasters, comprising multiple physical, statistical, or data-driven sub-forecasters to take advantage of their individual merits for more accurate and stable predictions. This presentation discusses novel hybrid forecasters, combining static and dynamic sub-forecasters based on time delay and recurrent artificial neural network algorithms, respectively. Various forecasters are developed to predict the ground-level global and direct normal irradiances, as well as the ambient air temperature for PV and concentrating solar power (CSP) systems. The results, overviewed for three typical sites in the Middle East region, show that the proposed models decrease the mean absolute errors of forecasts of the three variables by up to 39.4, 27.1, and 79.6%, and reduce the root mean square errors by up to ~21.5, 13.6, and 79.0%. The impact of the forecasting horizon on prediction accuracy is discussed, so as the impact of forecasting errors on the output power of typical PV and CSP plants. | |
| Biography: Dr. Muhammed A. Hassan is an assistant professor of Mechanical Power Engineering at Cairo University, Egypt. He received his Ph.D. degree and the best Ph.D. thesis award in 2018, followed by Fulbright’s visiting scholar grant, hosted by Texas A&M University. He also served as a visiting lecturer or researcher at different Egyptian universities such as Zewail City of Science and Technology and the German University in Egypt. Dr. Hassan is leading the Sustainable Energy Research Group (SERG) at Cairo University, with 50+ current and alumni graduate and undergraduate students. His research is mostly focused on sustainable energy systems and resources. In particular, he is interested in the assessment, modeling, and forecasting of solar radiation, wind speeds, photovoltaic/wind power generation, and wind turbine failures; optical and thermal enhancement of solar thermal concentrators; thermal management using nanofluids; compact heat exchangers; building-integrated solar energy systems; model-based control of HVAC systems; and poly-generation solar energy systems. He holds around 40+ indexed journal articles and 10+ peer-reviewed articles in international conferences, and he is a distinguished reviewer for 40+ international journals. Dr. Hassan is an expert and consultant on renewable energy and energy efficiency. He participated in and coordinated several funded research projects, especially focusing on concentrating solar power and high-performance buildings. He is also a member of several international associations such as ISES and WSSET. | |
